shanghai real estate

Angie and I went to a very interesting panel talk on Shanghai real estate last night. It was hosted by the Shanghai Stanford alumni club (not a member, just a lot of friends who are) at the really great meeting space Haworth.

These events are a great way to catch up with all the friends that you don't see enough - since neither they nor you make time for social events that don't have intellectual/economic value add [partial exaggeration]. With a lot of people hyperbusy here and/or traveling over the past month, it was nice to see a lot of familiar faces in one place. Plus we met a few people who we hadn't met, but who inevitably knew people we know here and back in the US. Something to do with the world getting smaller or flatter or something.

On the panel were five pros from property asset management, mortgage brokerage and real estate investment groups. The dialog flowed as most had worked together or known each other well from the industry. Most were candid and gave interesting info on the topics they were guided towards: market sentiment, regulatory environment, information sources, etc... The questions were good, if not a bit too personal (and limited in applicability) at times.  The usual caveats about hiring a lawyer, checking out the developer, understanding your investment goals, etc... were helpfully reiterated.

My takeaway was that all five are bullish long term and medium term, somewhat less so for the immediate short term. The government does have its hands on the controls via regulations, tax code changes and pressure on the banks to slow mortgage lending and the panelists seemed to suggest that this uncertainty is just something to come to terms with and get over. They recommend buying property downtown in the top two or three neighborhoods to have the long term demographics support your value retention.

All in all, the discussion reinforced my interest in buying a place here in Shanghai before yearend. For now, I think end of Q3/start of Q4 might be the best timing for market (and personal) reasons.